Iran

In Robin Wright’s Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East, she devotes a chapter to each of the countries in the region.  Chapter 7 begins

The Revolutionaries

Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth – more than ruin, more even than death. . . .  Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid.  Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man.

British philosopher Bertrand Russell

Those who dream by day are cognizant of many things

which escape those who dream only by night.

American writer Edgar Allan Poe

Revolutions often eat themselves up.  The turmoil, blood-letting and failure to produce the promised utopia trigger a backlash.  But in the reaction can lie the seeds of longer-term political change.

It is obvious from the events of the last eight days that the turmoil that began in 1978, that led to the capture of the U.S. embassy on November 4, 1979 has not been a revolution completed.  Khomeini got the ball rolling but a lack vision allowed the revolution to become moribund.  The populace is tired of the corruption and the inflexibility of the regime.

My guess is in the long run the current leaders are going to be on the short end of the stick.  The authorities may beat down the citizens.  The citizens may lack leadership.  But as long as there is the large amount of free-floating discontent that has been evidenced over the last three to four days, some one will emerge as a leader and the revolution will move forward.